{"id":1595,"date":"2025-03-06T15:37:25","date_gmt":"2025-03-06T14:37:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/?page_id=1595"},"modified":"2025-11-11T13:34:18","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T12:34:18","slug":"are-our-short-term-forecasts-necessary","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/en\/er-vores-korttidsforecasts-noedvendige\/","title":{"rendered":"Are our short-term forecasts necessary?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"1595\" class=\"elementor elementor-1595\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7f5abb1 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"7f5abb1\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;shape_divider_bottom&quot;:&quot;waves&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-shape elementor-shape-bottom\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-negative=\"false\">\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 1000 100\" preserveaspectratio=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"elementor-shape-fill\" d=\"M421.9,6.5c22.6-2.5,51.5,0.4,75.5,5.3c23.6,4.9,70.9,23.5,100.5,35.7c75.8,32.2,133.7,44.5,192.6,49.7\tc23.6,2.1,48.7,3.5,103.4-2.5c54.7-6,106.2-25.6,106.2-25.6V0H0v30.3c0,0,72,32.6,158.4,30.5c39.2-0.7,92.8-6.7,134-22.4\tc21.2-8.1,52.2-18.2,79.7-24.2C399.3,7.9,411.6,7.5,421.9,6.5z\"\/>\n<\/svg>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-659fd01 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"659fd01\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Are our short-term forecasts necessary?\n<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ac2f216 elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info\" data-id=\"ac2f216\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"post-info.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-2fc19d4 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"datePublished\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-calendar\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-date\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<time>06\/03\/2025<\/time>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8cf6f70 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8cf6f70\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2f9f5be elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2f9f5be\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Emergency departments have operated for many years without Praemostro's forecasts. So, are they really necessary? In this article, we take a closer look at the alternatives to our short-term forecast, PraeSight\u2014what exactly does it offer that the alternatives fail to deliver?\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3ce1b31 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3ce1b31\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76e981a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"76e981a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-04505e9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"04505e9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-1728\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c732676 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c732676\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7d63817 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7d63817\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eda7fbb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"eda7fbb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Emergency departments have always relied on experience and intuition to predict how busy their day will be. Thoughts like \"Will today be hectic?\" or \"It seems quiet right now\" cross the minds of staff daily\u2014if not aloud, then at least in their own internal dialogue. But how accurate are these estimates compared to actual patient numbers? And can our forecast do better?<\/p><p>In this article, we take a deep dive into the alternatives to our short-term forecast, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/en\/praesight-insight-into-whats-to-come-always-updated-and-always-accurate\/\">PraeSight<\/a><\/span>\u2014 and reveal exactly what it offers that other methods fail to capture.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bb5354b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"bb5354b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6eb834a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6eb834a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-64756d7 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"64756d7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4dc951b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4dc951b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">What has been done so far?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fb9e8fe elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fb9e8fe\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Historically, emergency department staff have had two ways to prepare for incoming patient flow:<\/p><ol><li>Guessing\u2014relying on experience and gut feeling to estimate how many patients will arrive.<\/li><li>Looking at historical data\u2014checking how many patients typically arrive at the same time on previous days.<\/li><\/ol>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-375d63f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"375d63f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The longer staff work in an emergency department, the better they should, in theory, become at predicting busy periods, managing sick leave, and calling in extra personnel to optimize resources. Yet, stress and burnout still lead to sick leave\u2014and in some cases, staff shortages and high turnover. So, can we do better? Can we get ahead of these challenges?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8e8a492 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8e8a492\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b66d630 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"b66d630\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1365\" src=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pawel-czerwinski-eybM9n4yrpE-unsplash-2048x1365-1.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-2061\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pawel-czerwinski-eybM9n4yrpE-unsplash-2048x1365-1.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pawel-czerwinski-eybM9n4yrpE-unsplash-2048x1365-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pawel-czerwinski-eybM9n4yrpE-unsplash-2048x1365-1-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pawel-czerwinski-eybM9n4yrpE-unsplash-2048x1365-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pawel-czerwinski-eybM9n4yrpE-unsplash-2048x1365-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pawel-czerwinski-eybM9n4yrpE-unsplash-2048x1365-1-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0e74fde e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"0e74fde\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bb00464 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"bb00464\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-45d5efe elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"45d5efe\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-1728\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/national-cancer-institute-NFvdKIhxYlU-unsplash_kold-1024x683-1-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1de97fc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"1de97fc\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9a173b8 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"9a173b8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1299de3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1299de3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">PraeSight vs. staff forecasts\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d02d28a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d02d28a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>One of Praemostro\u2019s key products, the short-term forecast PraeSight, has been running in a major Danish emergency department for nearly three years. To test whether staff could predict patient flow accurately, we turned off the system for one month in 2024. The goal was to compare predictions from both the staff and our system against actual patient numbers. Twice a day\u2014at 8 AM and 4 PM\u2014we called the attending specialist doctor and the experienced nurse in charge of the department and asked them two questions:<\/p><ol><li>How many patients do you expect in the next 8 hours?<\/li><li>Will this shift be normal, quieter than usual, or busier than usual?<\/li><\/ol>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-70f95c0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"70f95c0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Meanwhile, we tracked the actual number of patients arriving each hour and ran PraeSight in the background\u2014without revealing its predictions to the staff.<\/p><p>We then compared the staff\u2019s predictions to the actual patient numbers and calculated the difference for each 8-hour shift.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3bcca6d e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3bcca6d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-12d39c0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"12d39c0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"924\" height=\"424\" src=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede1.png\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-2062\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede1.png 924w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede1-300x138.png 300w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede1-768x352.png 768w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede1-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Figure 1: Deviations between staff forecasts and actual patient arrivals.<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76c7a58 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"76c7a58\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-45af4a5 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"45af4a5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-50ab960 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"50ab960\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Explanation of Figure 1\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0184e23 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0184e23\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In Figure 1 above, you can see what we discovered. The orange bars show the difference in the number of arriving patients compared to the doctors\u2019 estimates. The blue bars show the same discrepancy, but from the nurses\u2019 perspective.<\/p><p>Specifically, for example, on March 1 during the day shift, the doctor overestimated by 7 patients, while the nurse underestimated by 1 patient compared to the actual arrivals. A notable outlier is the day shift on March 15, where the doctor and nurse disagreed by more than 40 patients, despite both stating that they expected a normal shift.<\/p><p>In the example above, we focus on how often staff predictions were correct within a margin of one patient per hour, measured over 8 hours (i.e., +\/- 8 patients per shift). Over the three years that PraeSight has been in operation, the system has consistently predicted within +\/- 1 patient per hour accurately (95% of the time measured over 8 hours, meaning +\/- 8 patients per shift) in the given department.<\/p><p>The staff correctly predicted within +\/- 8 patients per shift 58% of the time, while they were incorrect in 42% of shifts. In comparison, PraeSight was correct 95% of the time. Additionally, when PraeSight\u2019s predictions were off, the deviation was smaller than when staff predictions were inaccurate.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-af2f277 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"af2f277\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eb05e7f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"eb05e7f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">PraeSight vs. historical data\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-658c8fe elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"658c8fe\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Another common approach to forecasting patient arrivals is looking at last week\u2019s numbers:\n\nFor example, if 8 patients arrived between 1 PM and 2 PM last Monday\u2014and there are no extraordinary circumstances\u2014one might assume 8 patients will arrive again today.<\/p><p>While historical data is a useful reference, it doesn\u2019t consider key factors such as epidemics, weather conditions, and special events\u2014all of which PraeSight integrates.\n\nMore importantly, PraeSight automatically analyzes how these factors interact with one another, significantly improving accuracy.<\/p><p>Using the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/advice\/3\/what-most-important-evaluation-metrics-time-series-lrxhe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">metric<\/a><\/span> we found that PraeSight predicts patient arrivals 25-35% more accurately than using last week's numbers alone. For reference, research literature suggests that a MASE value below 0.7 is difficult to achieve in similar forecasting scenarios. In our test department, PraeSight consistently achieved MASE values between 0.65 and 0.75, meaning there is very little room for further improvement.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cbfcbb7 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"cbfcbb7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-41487f9 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"41487f9\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bea7326 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"bea7326\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-03c0edf elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"03c0edf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">What about custom Excel formulas?\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-205cc96 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"205cc96\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Some emergency departments might consider creating their own forecasting models using Excel spreadsheets. Basic forecasting methods like simple weighted averages, exponentially weighted averages, or linear regression could be used to estimate future patient numbers. However, we don\u2019t see this as a viable alternative to PraeSight for a simple reason: it\u2019s difficult to measure and compare accuracy reliably.<\/p><p>Technically, Excel could replicate some of our calculations, but the process would be slow, cumbersome, and overly simplified\u2014reducing its effectiveness. To maintain transparency and credibility, we\u2019ve chosen not to compare PraeSight directly with homemade Excel models.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-65403fa e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"65403fa\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0ccbc69 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"0ccbc69\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1365\" src=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/philipp-katzenberger-iIJrUoeRoCQ-unsplash-2048x1365-1.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-2044\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/philipp-katzenberger-iIJrUoeRoCQ-unsplash-2048x1365-1.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/philipp-katzenberger-iIJrUoeRoCQ-unsplash-2048x1365-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/philipp-katzenberger-iIJrUoeRoCQ-unsplash-2048x1365-1-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/philipp-katzenberger-iIJrUoeRoCQ-unsplash-2048x1365-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/philipp-katzenberger-iIJrUoeRoCQ-unsplash-2048x1365-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/philipp-katzenberger-iIJrUoeRoCQ-unsplash-2048x1365-1-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-abf9d64 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"abf9d64\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ffcff3 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4ffcff3\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-953d7ae elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"953d7ae\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"731\" src=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede-5-1024x731-1.webp\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-1965\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede-5-1024x731-1.webp 1024w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede-5-1024x731-1-300x214.webp 300w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede-5-1024x731-1-768x548.webp 768w, https:\/\/praemostro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Billede-5-1024x731-1-18x12.webp 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-04f77db e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"04f77db\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8797ba2 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8797ba2\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7bee460 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"7bee460\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-517991a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"517991a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The fine print\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-de536a1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"de536a1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>While PraeSight is highly accurate, it is not 100% infallible.\n\nAs outlined above, there is a 5% chance that forecast precision will drop below \u00b11 patient per hour.\n\nWhen discrepancies occur, we analyze the root cause and make adjustments where possible, but no forecasting tool can guarantee a perfect prediction every time.\n\nThat\u2019s why PraeSight\u2014along with Praemostro\u2019s other products\u2014should be seen as a powerful decision-support tool, rather than an exact 1:1 predictor.<\/p><p>If you have questions about our forecasts, feel free to <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">reach out to us.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b889280 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b889280\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-896fcc2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"896fcc2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">BONUS: Fun fact\n<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-26593a2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"26593a2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Did you know that researchers have actually <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0735675722001784\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">studied<\/a><\/span>, whether saying \"It\u2019s quiet in here...\" in an emergency department causes more patients to arrive? A randomized controlled trial was conducted to investigate this superstition\u2014and the results? It makes no difference. So, in this case, superstitions can be put to rest.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-faf2e75 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"faf2e75\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-73e35e6 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"73e35e6\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9229a49 elementor-align-center elementor-tablet-align-left elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"9229a49\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/praemostro.com\/en\/praesight-forecast-for-de-naeste-12-timer\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"far fa-arrow-right\"><\/i>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Learn more about PraeSight here<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Er vores korttidsforecasts n\u00f8dvendige? Akutmodtagelser har eksisteret og klaret sig i mange \u00e5r uden Praemostros forecasts. S\u00e5 er de overhovedet n\u00f8dvendige? I denne artikel ser vi n\u00e6rmere p\u00e5 alternativerne til vores korttidsforecast, PraeSight \u2013 hvad kan den helt konkret byde ind med, som alternativerne faktisk \u2019misser\u2019? Personalet inden for det akutte felt har altid g\u00e6ttet [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1595","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Er vores korttidsforecasts n\u00f8dvendige? - Praemostro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Er vores korttidsforecasts n\u00f8dvendige? 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